MLB Expansion and Realignment

It seems inevitable that Major League Baseball will expand the league by two teams. No one is every gonna consult me about how to do it, but here’s how I’d tackle the challenge. The first order of business is for Oakland and Tampa to resolve their stadium issue. My guess is Tampa moves to Montreal in a few years. I’m not sure what will happen with Oakland, but the A’s may end up in Las Vegas.

When expansion happens, MLB should use the change as a catalyst to realign the divisions and move to a balanced schedule. What cites are in line for expansion? In order to figure out what cities would be good candidates I worked my way down the list of largest metro populations to come up with some ideas. I have narrowed the list down to five choices.

• Vancouver
• Portland
• Austin / San Antonio
• Monterrey

I don’t have Nashville or Charlotte listed, but I struggle with every potential US city because of the same problem. Every city that’s experienced fast growth over the last four decades has too many transplants loyal to their former city’s team. Watching your team no matter where you live is so easy these days it’s really difficult to convert fans to the hometown team. Baseball has failed to grow support in Tampa even when the team has won. The Tampa Bay metro area is larger than Nashville and Charlotte. Why should anyone expect those towns to have more support?

Judging by its enormous population Texas could support another team, but are the cities of San Antonio or Austin ready for a franchise? Austin’s MLS club is their first professional franchise so that might be an interesting choice, but it’s possible that the Rangers/Astros would block the bids based on a fear of market infringement. Admittedly I know very little about Portland. There does seem to be some movement in getting a bid ready for baseball. With no NFL in town Portland should be able to support a baseball team, but the metro population would be near the bottom of the league. It’s just a question of how excited would Portland be to support baseball?

Support shouldn’t be an issue for Monterrey. While Mexico City is a much larger city it faces a couple of potential issues in regards to baseball. The city has a higher altitude than Denver. Does baseball really want a new team with park friendlier for hitters than Coors Field? Mexico City also doesn’t have a ballpark and it could be a challenge to get one built. Monterrey is a big town that already has a ballpark that could be converted rather easily for MLB. The town is also in a far better economic position than Mexico City. Some may worry that crime is a problem, but the violent crime rate in Monterrey is lower than half the cities in MLB. Major League Baseball is certainly thinking about expansion in Mexico. A few years ago the league held weekend series between the Padres and Dodgers in Monterrey.

Adding two new clubs would create some division problems. The current system of five team divisions would likely have to be changed. In order to keep the same number of teams in each division each league would move to two, eight team divisions or four, four team divisions.

In this exercise I’m going to assume the Rays move to Montreal and become the Expos and Oakland moves to Vegas. The two new clubs are Vancouver and Monterrey.

Four team divisions:

AL North

• Yankees
• Red Sox
• Blue Jays
• Expos

AL South

• Royals
• Rangers
• Astros
• Monterrey

AL West

• Mariners
• Vancouver
• A’s
• Angels

AL Central

• White Sox
• Twins
• Indians
• Tigers

Some realignment would be necessary to make this work. The Rays/Expos stay in the AL. The Orioles move the NL South to be with the Nats.

NL North

• Mets
• Phillies
• Pirates
• Reds

NL South

• Braves
• Nats
• Orioles
• Marlins

NL Central

• Brewers
• Cubs
• Cards
• Rockies

NL West

• Dodgers
• Giants
• Diamondbacks
• Padres

My biggest reservation about the four team division realignment is the NL East. The Braves have rivalries with the Mets and Philles over the last 25 years, but it’s difficult to create a four team divisions and keep the Braves with the Phillies and Mets. The Pirates were long time members of the Eastern division so it’s fitting they’re paired again with the Mets, and Phillies.

Eight team divisions:

AL East

• Yankees
• Red Sox
• Blue Jays
• Expos
• Royals
• Rangers
• Astros
• Monterrey

AL West

• Mariners
• Vancouver
• A’s
• Angels
• White Sox
• Twins
• Indians
• Tigers

NL East

• Mets
• Phillies
• Pirates
• Reds
• Braves
• Nats
• Orioles
• Marlins

NL West

• Brewers
• Cubs
• Cards
• Rockies
• Dodgers
• Giants
• Diamondbacks
• Padres

The eight team divisions is fairly straight forward. The one question I have is if you’re letting 5 teams make the playoffs why have divisions at all? Just have two leagues, play a balanced schedule, and take the top 5. I suspect that smaller divisions will be the choice since that allows teams to cut down on travel. If that’s the route baseball chooses there really should only be 4 teams from each league in the playoffs.

MLB expansion is coming soon. The division realignment might take awhile. Getting anything changed in baseball is difficult. Baseball needs to move to balanced schedules, but getting to that goal isn’t going to be easy.